China is a complex beast, now with the growing political and economic power to influence game-changing proceedings both internally and globally.
China is almost paradoxically pursuing an emissions-intensive but renewable economy. While from a climate change perspective this scenario is not as detrimental as a stubborn and growing coal-based economy, it enables China to progress unshackled in "traditional" manufacturing industries as well as gain a firm foothold in the nascent renewable energy economy in preparation for the future.
For other countries, this places significant challenges for the global fight against climate change in the near-term. Additionally, in the medium- to long-term, it engenders considerable hurdles for "fair shares" in the emerging clean-energy economy: especially as China's protectionist tactics fence out international companies from capitalizing on China's large and growing demand; and more generally China's currency "manipulation" favors a trade surplus (although changing a bit now). Some related articles and highlights:
China Leading Global Race to Make Clean Energy
+ Solar, wind, biomass - to make up 8% of generations capacity by 2020
+ Intrinsic, subsidy-driven and policy-driven demand is fueling the growth of the industry
+ Large local demand enables economies-of-scale advantages for exports
+ Renewable energy doing more for the Chinese economy than the environment (e.g.,100,000 new jobs/year)
+ While there are (internal) industrial issues arising from perceived subsidy inequities, steadily decreasing prices of renewable energy may iron some of these out
China Builds High Wall to Guard Energy Industry
+ Chinese protectionist tactics favors local manufacturing to imports
--- Against the principle of WTO, but China has not yet signed WTO for the Government sector (which owns most manufacturing)
Geithner To Visit China Amid Currency Dispute
+ Artificial currency undervaluation keeps imports weak and exports strong
With China now the largest emitter of GHGs (over 6 billion tons of GHG eq.) it is clearly imperative to get China at the table, and talking the "right" talk. But, China has its arguments, unpalatable to the rest of the world, and unfortunately for it with the economic power and political canniness to force their way. China has demonstrated this at Copenhagen, while its actions at Mexico remain to be seen.
Thankfully, it is also in China's interest to become more green, to reduce reliance on foreign oil and to aid with mitigation of local climate change impacts like desertification, increased flooding in the north, the dangers of rising sea levels to its coastal cities and pollution.
China remains a keystone for any robust Climate Change agreement. However, hewing China into that keystone remains challenging. Some related info and comments:
China and Climate Change 101 (courtesy: Standard Chartered)
+ Some facts and figures
+ China's arguments against climate change mitigation actions by it
--- Climate change is not our fault: China accounted for only 8% of all GGEs from 1990-2006, compared to a 30% share for the US (see Table). By 2030, based on current trends, China will only have contributed 16% of all GGEs, compared to 25% from the US and 18% from the EU. These cumulative emissions matter because CO2 and other greenhouse gases linger and cause global warming for a long time.
--- China’s per-capita GGEs are very low: at only 4t of CO2 per year. This compares to 21t for Americans and 10t for Europeans and Japanese.
--- China needs to develop further before we can throw large amounts of resources at climate change. The industrialised world, in contrast, can afford to spend money on curbing emissions.
--- A large portion of China’s GGEs is generated in the production of exports to the rich world – as much as one-third, by one estimate (although other research puts the number lower).
--- Apart from the Europeans, we do not see developed countries walking the walk. The US did not ratify Kyoto, and does not yet have a climate bill passed, we will not know if it has the ability to ratify any agreement. Japan is not going to meet its Kyoto target, while Australia withdrew from Kyoto and then re-joined.
Finally, an example of China's obstructionist tactics and power-play at work:
How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room
(possibly somewhat biased, but an interesting read)
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